Tomorrow is the big day! I feel like I'm living a historical reason. The main reason for this is that I really am! And I feel privileged to be able to participate with my vote (+ 1 proxy, but with that I'm just following instructions) and live this moment. Nobody knows what the result of the referendum will be tomorrow. However, at this moment, there are certain things that seem certain:
1) The result will be a close shot. This is not good for the unionist camp, in which I'm included. If there is only one more vote for YES than for NO, Scotland will become independent. However, if there is no expressive victory of the NO there will be a constant push for more devolution that will become a nightmare of British politics for the years to come.
2) Speaking of devolution... Whatever the result, Salmond already won something. Even with a defeat of the YES, he would have won more devolution, as that has been the promise of the three unionist parties. Some version of his "devo max" will be put in place in the near future.
3) The three unionist parties will most likely have already lost something. The initial huge advantage of the vote for "Britishness". Only a few months ago every poll gave the vote for the union a big lead. On the day before the referendum, nobody is certain of the result. One year ago, a very comfortable majority of Scots would think of themselves as Scot and Brit. Now the nation is divided between those who only consider themselves as Scots and those who also consider themselves as Brits.
4) South of the border this referendum made a lot of people think about devolution for England. This would only make sense... After all, the English MPs don't get to decide on a lot of issues devolved to Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, but the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs get to decide on all the laws that rule England.
5) Another thing that is independent of the result of the referendum in Scotland, is the political instability this referendum created in Spain. Cameron is already seen as a hero in Catalonia because at the very least he allowed the referendum to take place. Catalans are increasingly united in favor of independence and blame it on the stubbornness of Madrid who refuses to be play according to the gentleman like rules of London.
6) The same argument used by the Catalans against Madrid will be used by the Basques against Madrid and Paris, the Flemish against Brussels, the Corsicans against Paris, the Padanians against Rome... At least Cameron will come out as the hero of all these interdependence movements. I can already imagine buying a t-shirt with Cameron's face over the Corsican flag in Ajaccio.
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